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Russell McLendon

Halloween fright: 7 billion humans

Earth has never hosted 7 billion people all at once before, but according to the U.N., it may reach that spooky milestone by the end of this month.

Mon, Oct 24 2011 at 4:23 PM EST
 60

city lights from space YOU ARE THE LIGHT OF THE WORLD: City lights are seen from space in this composite satellite image, which shows the Earth shortly after its human population hit 6 billion in 1999. (Image: NASA GSFC)
Next Monday will be a big day for humanity, and not just because it's Halloween. The U.N. predicts Earth's human population will reach 7 billion on Oct. 31, a historic milestone for our species — yet one that also feels hauntingly familiar.
 
It took about 200,000 years for modern humans to reach the 1 billion mark in 1805, but then suddenly there were 2 billion of us in 1927, 3 billion in 1960, 4 billion in 1974 and 5 billion in 1987. The 6 billion mark came in 1999, and 8 billion is due around 2025. We're widely expected to hit 10 billion before the end of this century.
 
Since Earth has a limited supply of important things like freshwater, phosphorus and farmland, it seems unlikely this trend can go on forever. But there's little agreement on how many people is too many, and even less agreement on what — if anything — should be done.
 
This is a delicate subject, and one that will be further examined here and elsewhere during the next week. For now, though, as the U.N. kicks off its "7 Days to 7 Billion People" countdown, let's just take a moment to reflect on how explosive our rise to 7 billion has been.
 
(Quick side note: The U.N. admits the Oct. 31 estimate should be taken "with a grain of salt," since no one knows exactly when we'll hit 7 billion. The U.S. Census Bureau says it will happen next spring, but the exact date doesn't really matter. Seven billion is an arbitrary point on a line; the line itself is what's important.)
 
Homo sapiens grew relatively slowly for the first 95 percent of its existence, not even hitting 1 million until about 10,000 years ago. The pace sped up as we adopted farming and city life, and then the Industrial Revolution put us in overdrive. After finally breaking 1 billion in the early 1800s, we grew by 270 percent in the 1900s — compared with an average of 22 percent during each of the previous nine centuries. Someone born in 1850 would likely have seen just two "X billion people" milestones in his or her lifetime, but baby boomers from the 1950s are about to see their fifth.
 
Words can only go so far in conveying the scale of humanity's population growth, especially over the last 200 years. The story needs visual aids, so I made the following bar graphs in Google Charts, using two data sets (here and here) that include population records and forecasts from 10,000 BC to 2050 AD:
 
Global human population (in billions), 1 AD - 2011 AD
 
In this first graph, notice how the time intervals change. Most of the bars skip 200-year gaps, but after 1800 the gaps shrink to 100, 50, 30, 20 and finally 11 years (I used 11 for the last one just so it would end on 2011). If humans were reproducing at a more linear rate, messing with the time intervals could distort the data, making our growth seem slow or stagnant. But that doesn't happen. Compare the gaps between 1800-1900 and 2000-2011, for example: It took 100 years for us to grow by 736 million people in the 1800s, but now we've added 906 million in just 11 years.
 
For the same data with equal time intervals, see the alternate version below:
 
Global human population (in billions), 1 AD - 2000 AD
 
This is what the last two centuries' growth looks like in a head-to-head comparison. But there is one key detail that gets lost in the graph above: Even though we're reaching unprecedented overall numbers, the rate of population growth is already slowing down. The annual growth rate always jumps around a bit, but after passing 1.5 percent in the 1950s and peaking at 2.23 percent in 1963, it has been generally declining ever since. It stayed above 2 percent until 1972, then dropped to 1.86 percent in 1980, 1.57 percent in 1990 and 1.27 percent in 2000. The U.S. Census Bureau predicts it will fall below 1 percent by 2020, and down to 0.5 percent by 2050.
 
It's hard to link specific causes to this trend, or to be sure how long it will continue, but it does hint at a shift from the population dynamics of recent centuries. Still, with such huge numbers of people already on the planet, even dropping below 1 percent annual growth means adding tens of millions of people every year. To illustrate how big humanity is becoming even as its growth rate slows, here's a graph combining data from 1900 to 2010 with Census Bureau projections for the next 40 years:
 
Global human population (in billions), 1900 AD - 2050 AD
 
Update: For ideas on how the global population can better sustain itself, check out this post on how to make overpopulation OK.
 
And lastly, here are two line graphs that show growth rates for the 10 countries forecast to be the most populous in 2050, using observed and projected data from 1950 to 2050. (The first graph shows China and India, since their populations dwarf all others. The second graph shows the eight other countries in the top 10 for 2050).
 
Population by country (in billions), 1950-2050
 
Population by country (in millions), 1950-2050
 
Also on MNN:
  • How many people have ever lived on Earth?
  • Crowded Earth: How many is too many?
  • Earth Day founder: Overpopulation is overlooked
  • How to feed all 7 billion of us
 
CLOSE link:
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Related Topics: City & Urban, Ecology, Halloween, Population Growth, Sustainable Communities, UN

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anonymous
Dr. Doom 11/01/2011 23:32 PM

The new millenium is only the beginning of the end of the world as we know it. There will be no human beings on the planet earth in the year 3000, and none too soon. Whatever humanity has done since it appeared on this planet will be wiped out, and good riddance,forever. Hopefully there will be no reappearance of humans ever again.

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anonymous
Happy Flowers and Rainbows 11/02/2011 13:58 PM

Dr. Doom: I have never read anything as depressing and sad as your post. All humans are wonderful. Look into the eyes of a newborn baby to see the beginning of a new universe,smell the air after a spring rain and walk on a beautiful beach to see the sky and waves. Mankind will endure and get better,people will be kind to one another, with no more wars! Every person has a wellspring of goodness that flows out if you are kind and gentle. Peace to the universe.

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anonymous
Amazed 10/31/2011 14:13 PM

WOW! Population is increasing by leaps and bounds -- and there is STILL no good men out there. WTF

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anonymous
Kritos 10/31/2011 12:56 PM

Do not worry, the earthy will eventually get rid of us humans

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anonymous
A 10/31/2011 12:52 PM

They're at least trying in China, but what about India, which is second?! They also need one child policy - but so far some strange-religion people even have 80 children there!

C'mon India! You need to care as well!

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anonymous
Patriot 10/31/2011 11:55 AM

This story is more scare mongering from the left. There is no "population crisis". The world has been here for millions of years, and people have been here for millions of years. Why are they now saying the sky is falling?? Real reason: Its an election year and the liberals want to scare you.

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anonymous
alex mids 10/31/2011 11:41 AM

dude man.. honestly im lovin this...alot

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anonymous
Duck Wayne 10/31/2011 11:42 AM

me to...you see along time ago an old man once showed me the way....

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Tarrant
Tarrant 10/31/2011 11:32 AM

Is the answer population control or consumption control?

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anonymous
IR geek 10/31/2011 12:42 PM

Thank you for the only educated comment on this whole board. Its not population control persay, its absolutely overconsumption of natural resources of richer nations.

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anonymous
Josh 10/31/2011 11:25 AM

If you have ever drove across the country, you know how much empty space there is. Technology is going to solve any food problems and energy problems. So having 7 billion people on the planet is not a reason to revert to '1984' where they are always watching you.

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anonymous
eaglemount 10/30/2011 21:28 PM

God told Noah's sons to be fruitful and multiply, so from them came all the nations of the world. God loves each and every one, and calls us all to believe in His Son Jesus, so that we can live forever with Him. He is in control, and has predicted that most of the population will be wiped out by natural disasters, famine, war, and by His own judgments on sinners who will not repent. Hence the call right now for all to repent and receive the gift of eternal through faith in Jesus. After all.... More

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anonymous
Mobius007 10/30/2011 16:35 PM

Continued population growth requires increased agricultural output. Modern agriculture is heavily dependent on fossil fuels. Many would argue that the population explosion over the last century was due in large part to the availability of cheap, plentiful fossil fuels. I know many of you have heard of "peak oil"...

Watch the interview here with Dr. Faith Birol, the Chief Economist of the International Energy Association as he describes that conventional oil production has peaked – in 2006..... More

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anonymous
SixDegrees 10/30/2011 14:43 PM

"We're widely expected to hit 10 billion before the end of this century."

No report I've read has suggested that. Just the opposite, in fact. Population growth rates are already slowing, and most studies predict that we will hit a peak of around 9 billion somewhere around 2050, then decline from there, mostly due to increasing affluence and education worldwide, and to a lesser (and sadder) extent to population declines related to AIDs in much of Africa, where much superstition and.... More

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anonymous
Annoymous 10/30/2011 14:24 PM

I am sure this will really offend, but maybe in the near future we can have one of those really big catastrophic natural disasters that will wipeout a chunk of the excess population. Natures way of keeping everything in balance. If not maybe our governments have develop a shot that they give out to a percentage of the new children born each year that will render them sterile so that can not reproduce when they become adults. Hey you got to start controling the population somehow as there are.... More

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anonymous
Anonymouspau 10/31/2011 08:42 AM

So you have obviously fallen for the NWO agenda i see.You do realize that you can fit 7 billion people can fit side by side in the state of texas right?You also realize that they have a way of filtering ANY water including salt water with something they discovered 20 years years ago right?That they could take african land and turn it into a massive field of all sorts of fruits and vegetables with this water and that the only reason they don't,is because the super.... More

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anonymous
Anonymous 10/31/2011 07:49 AM

"Nature's Way"?

There is no such thing as "Nature's Way" and in "nature", there is no static "balance". The way some people think of "Nature" as some sort of entity is laughable, and the way some people thinkn that there is a "balance" or "natural state" that we must maintain so that we can thrive is pathetic.

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anonymous
Richard 10/30/2011 14:52 PM

The point is that you do not need to do that at all, it is not your problem and it is not YOUR government problem. Stop thinking global, think local. You do not observe population grows in old Europe or US. Keep in mind the locality of the issue, HERE you have immigration issue, THERE you have explosive population grows.

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anonymous
Richard 10/30/2011 13:41 PM

Think about your countries, how to protect them being overpopulated, how to strengthen the military, how to protect borders, how sustain balance of life here in US, for example. If you want to help - help your people here, do not send food overseas, it only will makes thing worse. You can not save irresponsible nations or cultures, but just protect what you have, your land, your culture and your future. Your ancestors died for your right to enjoy the life here, value that opportunity, cherish.... More

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anonymous
PFC-Man 10/30/2011 13:26 PM

My wife and I have 8 children. I can feel the love! (preparing to get bashed by liberals...)

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anonymous
biff 10/30/2011 13:54 PM

It is not a liberal vs conservative issue; it is simple math. You and your wife are selfish egomaniacs. No one is important enough to crank out 8 copies of themselves.

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anonymous
Gerald McBoing Boing 10/30/2011 15:52 PM

Agree with Biff. The planet does not need or want people to reproduce themselves to the tune of 8 more. Enough is enough! Please do not let this selfish person serve as a role model for anyone! I haven't noticed that the world is getting any better with all these extra people around, in fact it's much worse. We are not evolving, we are devolving!!

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anonymous
Anonymous_Tom 10/30/2011 14:06 PM

Don't panic. The fallacy of Malthus is constantly forgotten. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_catastrophe#Criticism

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anonymous
Mobius007 10/30/2011 11:20 AM

Human population growth is following the same trend seen with other species as they fill their environment. At some point population overshoots a sustainable equilibrium, based on available resources, and the die-off begins.

You would *think* that humans would be smart enough to realize this and prevent it!

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anonymous
BROWNROSES 10/30/2011 08:03 AM

I am so happy there will be more humans on this planet. I would love to do my part to contribute toward their survival and happiness. The party is on planet earth. I love it here. I gues my participation would be to take better care of the planet. Imagine if everyone was required to plant a FRUIT TREE- e.g. an apple tree on their land. When we reached 60 billion, the party will be better. Yea! Let's not forget free public education to the whole planet! yeeh! I love earth! I love.... More

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anonymous
Enter your name 10/30/2011 07:58 AM

I am so happy there will be more humans on this planet. I would love to do my part to contribute toward their survival and happiness. The party is on planet earth. I love it here. I gues my participation would be to take better care of the planet. Imagine if everyone was required to plant a FRUIT TREE- e.g. an apple tree on their land. When we reached 60 billion, the party will be better. Yea! Let's not forget free public education to the whole planet! yeeh! I love earth! I love.... More

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anonymous
Erica 10/30/2011 02:01 AM

Although are opinions have some merit, we must remember mother nature has a way of correcting itself if it is to be we have 30 billion then it shall be on the flip side of the coin if it is to reduce our population then it shall be.

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anonymous
Craig Holm 10/29/2011 23:22 PM

Unfortunately, the math is accurate. There are limits to growth and those people who read this are among those that will likely see what falls out. Natural population control mechanisms, such as hunger, disease and natural calamity won't work.That leaves active (enforced) population control and war. We need some serious out-of-the-box thinking here and we need it NOW. Years ago there was talk about colonizing the oceans. It may be time to revisit those ideas.

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anonymous
My prediction is that you are right 10/29/2011 18:40 PM

In the very very near future, after a cataschlysmic event, the population will be 500 million and mother nature will have the last word.

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anonymous
Beaver Cleaver 10/29/2011 18:35 PM

I agree 100% with Art. People are the ruination of this planet. Note to all people of earth: Please,Please do not have any babies. we do not want or need one more person on this beautiful planet. Human beings are useless masses of protoplasm and water. The sooner they are gone, the better off the universe will be. We will be gone, and no one will ever know we were on this earth. Mother earth will exist for the next billion years with humans only a sorry footnote to this grand and wonderful.... More

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anonymous
Craig Holm 10/29/2011 23:35 PM

I truly love Mother Earth, but I am first and foremost a member of the human race. Everything else in the Universe comes second to that. I promise you that the beauty that we perceive on this planet is only perceivable by humans. Does a falling tree make a sound in the forest when no one is there to hear it? Is there beauty without anyone around to appreciate it? I fully encourage those people who believe that humanity is a blight on the world to do the right and proper thing by removing.... More

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anonymous
Beaver Cleaver 10/30/2011 08:44 AM

Dearest Craig, I too love all human beings, there are just way too many of them. I am suggesting that people stop reproducing themselves in such a way that we overrun this beautiful planet. We have enough already,is it too much to ask that every family only have two children? Humans attitude of superiority is absolutely laughable when compared to the majesty of the universe, we are only a grain of sand in the Sahara Desert,that's how important we are in the grand scheme of things!

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anonymous
Art Van Delay 10/29/2011 18:02 PM

We do not need any more people on this poor planet. There are enough jerks, obnoxious, arrogant dumbasses for the next 400 years. Please people do not have any babies, do the universe a favor. Lets set the clock back to where there were only dinosaurs and a few ferns around, the world was a much better place without the human race to screw it up!! I hope that in the next 1000 years the human race is wiped out and the earth is inhabited by only animals, the universe will be better for it.

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anonymous
HammyK 10/29/2011 12:21 PM

The rich should dissipate some of their wealth to the poorer class and stop the waste.

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anonymous
Nyangena Nic 10/30/2011 20:54 PM

Indeed Hammyk, you're right with scarce resources available on this planet,sharing of key resources should the key for future survival, selfish and greedy lives might lead to catastrophe with this population explosion.

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anonymous
ichiban 10/29/2011 10:57 AM

More and more will have less and less until there is no more and there will be fewer and fewer. The intelligence of the species is overwhelming.

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anonymous
Enter your name 10/29/2011 01:04 AM

Just wait until WW3. The powers that be will want to reduce those numbers VASTLY soon enough.

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anonymous
My Old Nehru Jacket 10/28/2011 21:26 PM

If procreation didn't feel so darn good, as just say a colonoscopy, which no man in the world wants, the population of the earth would be about 300 people. Also no man on the planet earth would ever endure childbirth, case closed. I say this as a man, of which I am not proud of at this moment. We are all doomed!!

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anonymous
Joey 10/28/2011 20:10 PM

Funny how most of you want others to stop having children... while you should be criticizing your own parents. Better yet, take your own life to give the rest of us some space. Who's up for a nice can of Soylent Green? I am, though I insist you should go first.

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anonymous
2bits 10/28/2011 13:54 PM

Even scarier--about 5 billion believe in the mythology of religions

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anonymous
ichiban 10/29/2011 11:02 AM

Amen...

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anonymous
Anonymous 10/29/2011 10:30 AM

you said that right

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anonymous
Anonymous 10/28/2011 14:33 PM

I guess somethings (like GOD) are self evedent.

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anonymous
Cho cho 10/28/2011 13:21 PM

They have 1.5 billion people in china. That number is simply unfathomable.

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anonymous
Pest 10/28/2011 12:58 PM

Things are only going to get worse. I won't be producing any offspring to experience the consequences of your irresponsibility.

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anonymous
Joey 10/28/2011 20:15 PM

Someone can't get some. Remember, look in the mirror. To me, you are part of the problem.

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anonymous
abhi 10/28/2011 15:06 PM

I will follow the suite. I request my country men (India) to do their bit.

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anonymous
Victoria L 10/28/2011 12:36 PM

This is a bit scary...it'll be like a bad movie in 14 years. but I agree with Sandy there, with all these natural disasters, our population just might go down...

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anonymous
Anonymous 10/30/2011 11:09 AM

Man's greed and mismanagement of earth's land and resources is the blame here. Studies show that if properly parced out, the world's population easily could fit in the state of Texas with 2 acres per person. Granted, not all every inch is livable, and not every inch of the earth is livable.

If one reads the history of Texas for example, millions upon millions of acres were stolen from the Indians and Mexicans and were given to any poor European slob willing to move his family from.... More

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anonymous
Mr. Happy 10/30/2011 21:03 PM

Do you mean that the entire population of this planet would be actually living in Texas? If that isn't a deterrent to population growth, I don't know what is! No one on the planet earth would ever want to live in Texas! Texas should be declared a non inhabitable part of the United States, and used for disposal of nuclear waste and used as a landfill.

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