Many people are trying to forecast the outcome of the Copenhagen climate talks. One group put together by the Center for Energy & Environmental Markets (CEEM) University of New South Wales set up a "prediction market" that allows people to place bets on various outcomes. Real money is not exchanged but prizes are given to the best "traders." As it turns out this is a much more accurate way to forecast political outcomes than polling. Here is the latest graph, trending towards an overall CO2 reduction of 10-15% in Annex I (developed) nations by 2020:
There are several other predictions being made by the trading scheme, but I thought it would be good to get some on-the-street predictions by several noted climate gurus. Here's Jack Hidary of the Clinton Global Initiative, an expert on climate policy and one of the creators of the "Cash for Clunkers" and the new "Cash for Caulkers" programs:
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