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Karl Burkart

Branson: 5 more years of cheap oil

Sir Richard Branson has done the research and predicts that we have 5 more years before oil demand exceeds supply.

Thu, Feb 18 2010 at 5:13 PM EST
 7

Photo: Virgin Unite
Yesterday at the Carbon War Room in Vancouver I heard Sir Richard Branson make a shocking statement -- we have five more years of cheap oil.
 
Until very recently 'peak oil' theorists have been dismissed as radical alarmists. BP, Exxon and the Saudis have all said there is no need to worry. But if you are the world's most successful businessman and you own fleets of planes, ships and trucks you probably would be inclined to double check oil exec placations.
 
That is exactly what Branson did, and the academic researchers and economists he hired to perform an independent assessment of oil supplies have made him very, very worried. 
 
Given the demand curves of the two fastest growing economies -- India and China -- combined with sustained (yet slowed) growth in the developed world, Branson and others are predicting that demand and supply will intersect in the next 5 years. When that occurs, oil prices will spike and that could send the world's biggest nations into economic tailspin.
 
Last week, Branson announced the report's findings and was joined by the first oil executive to break ranks with his peak oil-denying peers -- Thierry Desmarest, CEO of France-based Total Oil. Both mean warn of a doubling (at least) of oil prices.
 
I'll be uploading Branson's talk later today, and telling you more about how he has decided to "declare war" on dirty fuels.
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Related Topics: Oil & Gas, Oil Dependence, Renewable Energy

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anonymous
Thomas | Electric Car 02/20/2011 11:27 AM

Even if there would be enough oil for another 200 years we shouldn´t stick to this energy source and go for alternatives. Especially in the moblity sector a cleaner and more efficient way should be pursuit. Just think about the air quality in bigger cities. I wonder for which reason alternatives weren´t forced many years ago!

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anonymous
michael 01/23/2011 14:33 PM

Isnt it funny that Bronson is "declaring war" on the very fuel that powers his fleets and ultimatley his empire? Also, with all the fear mongering about peak oil, much of the citizenry is learning to cope with less and being proud of it. Isnt it, then, giving more of the supply of oil to world militaries, airlines, shipping liners, and Bronsons'' fleet?

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anonymous
andy 11/18/2010 21:47 PM

Supply and demand always intersect. It is the market price that will fluctuate as it always has. In other words, the cost of flying will increase. By the way, people have said this **** for years.

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anonymous
dan 01/03/2011 08:00 AM

Demand can and does outstrip supply on a regular basis.
Just look at the Irish water shortage. Everyone wants it, but they just can't supply it.

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anonymous
mark 08/11/2010 22:15 PM

Of course you know that this is how the world leaders shape the global economy. Fear. The Golf of Mexico is a good example of lots of oil.
Shoot the fear monsters.

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anonymous
Fune 02/22/2010 23:46 PM

This is coming from the guy who lost his entire fortune on real estate investments. Haha!

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anonymous
Bruce McHenry 02/18/2010 19:03 PM

Sudden increases in oil prices have been the norm so Branson's prediction that oil will return to $150 or $200 per bbl in five years is hardly surprising. Of course, it leads to problems. Profit margins are typically only a few percent so Branson needs to be very concerned by the possibility of fueling costs or ticket sales changing by 10 or 20%.

Averaging out the extremes, historical energy prices have also tracked inflation quite closely. As more natural gas comes on-line, it.... More

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