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New report: 5 million climate deaths predicted by 2020
First comprehensive study on climate mortality — released today at COP16 — projects rapidly increasing death toll especially among children because of climate change.
Thu, Dec 02 2010 at 11:08 PM
 3
Climate impacts

Photos: DARA International

There's no doubt UNFCCC delegates are feeling a great deal of pressure to make some tangible progress here at the COP16 climate conference in Cancun. But that pressure may be ratcheted up a notch after the Dec. 3 release of the Climate Vulnerability Monitor, the first definitive study of the impacts of climate change on human health.
 
The report was prepared by DARA, a leading humanitarian research organization in conjunction with the CVF (Climate Vulnerable Forum) an alliance of 11 nations* that are experiencing the most direct impacts of climate change. The paper was peer reviewed by 11 experts on human health, climate science and disaster relief.
 
The report offers some sobering findings. Already there are an estimated 350,000 climate-related deaths per year, and that number is expected to nearly double by 2020 and triple by 2030. Not surprisingly, most of those impacted will be children and women in the poorest parts of the world.
 
The data charts provided in the report reveal a tragic irony — the countries that pollute the most are affected the least. Compare North America with East Africa across four impact types — economic loss, habitat loss, human health and extreme weather impacts:
 
 
 
In the U.S. and Canada, habitat loss increases significantly, but all other impact types remain constant. Africa starts out worse, and gets far worse with mortality doubling while habitat and economic losses quadruple.
 
DARA director Ross Mountain tries to put these findings in perspective:
If we let pressures more 
than 
triple, or worse, no amount of humanitarian assistance or 
development aid is
 going to 
stem 
the suffering and devastation. Highly fragile countries will 
become graveyards over which we pour 
billions of dollars. Low‐lying
 islands will simply not 
be viable
 anymore, then disappear. We will all pay and we will 
pay big time.
The report looks at 184 countries with some of the hardest-hit countries experiencing a 300 percent increase in climate impacts. By 2030, 170 countries will experience at least one significant climate-related impact. This is bad news for the global economy.
 
The world is now experiencing about $130 billion in financial losses due to climate change. By 2020, that number will rise to $200 billion, and by 2030 it will be close to $275 billion in annual losses related to managing marketing instabilities, sea level rise and disaster impacts.
 
eyes
 
The report, though sobering, does end on a brighter note with 50 measures that governments can begin implementing right now to stave off the worst impacts predicted by the Climate Vulnerability Monitor.
 
 
* The 11 nations are Bangladesh, Barbados, 
Bhutan, Kiribati, 
Ghana, 
Kenya, Nepal,
 Rwanda, 
Tanzania, Vietnam 
and Maldives.

The opinions expressed by MNN Bloggers and those providing comments are theirs alone, and do not reflect the opinions of MNN.com. While we have reviewed their content to make sure it complies with our Terms and Conditions, MNN is not responsible for the accuracy of any of their information.

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Comments: 3
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anonymous
kjsacramento Jun 08 2011 at 1:32 AM
Better a few Chicken Littles keep us aware than have their counterparts totally lull us into believing NOTHING is wrong until more damage is done. Tod sounds like he is just the opposite extreme to those panicked about Climate Change - in denial that we could be damaging our planet or that government can have provide some value to us. I used to have my flower-covered garden abundant with bees and birds for many years. Over the last two years I am lucky to see a handful of either. Can anyone
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really tell me there is no concern? I don't presume to have the answer nor do I take a side. I also don't merely chime in with one side or the other, or simply fall for a ruse. I just have an open inquisitive mind and appreciate that I was made aware of the issue. That helps me make positive changes that undoubtedly improve our chances one way or the other. I believe in taking the road that is the lesser of two evils. I would rather be fooled by some beggar who uses my cash for drugs than take a chance that I turn my back on some honest man trying to feed his children. I would rather lose a few bucks to the government or universities in seeking better ways to care for our planet than take a chance and possibly destroy it. I guess I also just don't buy into the belief that all those researchers are evil and none have high ideals - I agree there are users and manipulators involved, but I also believe in a higher moral majority.
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anonymous
Tod Dec 16 2010 at 5:32 PM
"I think we still need some people to panic us into awareness and action!" What do you think al gore was doing with his idiotic movie? There is no consensus on Global warming among actual scientists, and even less consensus on any man-made aspects of it. It's government grant driven chicken littlesism. as long as we keep giving colleges and researchers money they are going to do everything to keep that money coming. Which means "the sky is falling" "give us money, because only we can keep it up
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there". Wake up people, you are being played, (like ethanol), and the emperor has no clothes.
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anonymous
KJSacramento Dec 16 2010 at 3:24 PM
Everyone I speak to thinks that the fear of climate change is nonsense, just Chicken Little running around to scare us, but what if It's not? I get my hopes up when the snow in Minnesota looks like it did in the 50's again and is so heavy it collapsed the Vikings Metrodome, but it's no assurance. History has proven people take their well-being for granted until disaster hits ... it's human nature to think it won't happen to us. For a better perspective I went to the UN site to see a less panicky
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version of the take on climate change. Go to un.org and click on climate change to see what is behind these numbers, but don't let it lull you into complacency. I think we still need some people to panic us into awareness and action!
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