New York Times contributor blogs about cars and other interesting ways of getting around.
Shell says the end of the oil era is 2070
An oil platform at twilight. Will we say goodbye to the dominant energy form of the 20th century? (Photo: Chris Havard Berge/Flickr)
- With reduced growth of travel demand, increased vehicle efficiency, and natural gas, electricity and hydrogen increasingly in use, liquid fuels for passenger road transport decline after a global peak in 2035.
- Electricity generation becomes effectively zero-CO2 by 2060. By 2090, these carbon sinks offset the remaining impact of the difficult to de-carbonize transport and industrial sectors.
- By the end of the century, it is possible that hydrogen has risen, phoenix-like, from its [relatively low] position at the beginning.
By 2070, the passenger road market could be nearly oil-free and towards the end of the century an extensive hydrogen infrastructure rollout displaces oil demand for long haul and heavy loads. By this time, electricity and hydrogen may dominate, and affordable, plug-in, hybrid hydrogen vehicles offer the ultimate in flexibility and efficiency.
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