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The top 10 electric cars most likely to succeed
It's still early as electric and plug-in hybrid cars roll out, but it's time to call likely winners and also-rans.
Fri, Aug 19 2011 at 3:35 PM
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IN FOCUS: Ford's new electric car has a good tailwind. (Photo: Ford)
The crystal ball is still cloudy on electric and plug-in hybrid cars. They’re still being made in limited numbers, and delivered to very specific test markets. And half the really exciting ones aren’t even here yet. Still, it’s time to make some predictions about what will succeed and what will fail in the marketplace. Here are my top 10 leading candidates, in descending order:
1. Chevy Volt (at right): GM’s $41,000 plug-in hybrid, soon to have a sister car in the more upscale Cadillac ELR (first seen on the auto show circuit as the Converj in 2009). GM has sold 3,200 so far, but the number doesn’t have much to do with demand — production’s been shut down as the company gears up for a capacity of 60,000 a year by 2012.2. Toyota Prius plug-in hybrid: With an all-electric range of nine to 13 miles, after which it’s a regular Prius, this car should find a lot of fans.
3. Nissan Leaf: Some 4,000 have been sold so far in the U.S., and East Coast customers are still waiting patiently. The price is going up for 2012 — to $38,000 for the SL trim that most customers will want.
4. Tesla Model S: Due next year, this $49,990 electric sedan is half the price of the exotic Roadster, but it has far more utility. On the same platform, Tesla will also offer a Model X crossover that should sell really well.
5. Ford C-Max Energi plug-in hybrid: There is now downside to plug-in hybrids, except maybe their price. This one is headed for the market in 2012, and with 500 miles of range it should be a really practical, fun-to-own car.
6. Ford Focus electric/Toyota RAV4 electric (tie): Take your pick. The 2012 Focus (pictured at top) is an electric version of the redesigned Focus small car, best used as a city car with an 80-mile range. It should offer good performance — celebrities raced them on Jay Leno’s show! The RAV4 is being built with Tesla, and it continues the electric career of the popular crossover (which was briefly on the market around the turn of the millennium as a competitor for the GM EV1).
7. Fisker Karma: After many delays, the Karma (at right) is finally on the market, or at least the first set of keys has been handed to Leonardo DiCaprio, with Colin Powell and Al Gore in the wings. The Karma is a $100,000 plug-in hybrid with Italian supercar good looks (though the BMW veteran designer is actually a Dane). This car has serious glamor going for it, but it has to perform up to the hype.8. Honda Fit/Toyota iQ city electrics (tie): I love subcompacts, and they make great bases for inexpensive electric cars. These two (both headed for production in 2012) should be evenly matched, and go head to head. I’m really hoping for low prices on these two cars — under $30,000 would be nice, even if it means a smaller battery pack and less than 100 miles of range.
9. BMW i3 Megacity Vehicle: BMW was an early player in the space with its lively Mini-based electric vehicles, and its successor, a plug-in version of the 1-Series. The 2013 BMW i3 is the company’s first all-electric platform, and it’s headed for the road in the world’s super-crowded cities (hence the name). The concept makes sense, since that’s where the world’s population is headed, but only if the price is kept low enough so the middle class (instead of just the super-rich) can afford it.
10. Porsche 918 Spyder plug-in hybrid: Speaking of the super-rich, this car will cost $845,000. Porsche will build just 918 of them when it debuts on Sept. 18, 2013. (They’re into numerology at Porsche.) But even if they sell only a few of them, at that price the company will make money — and reap acres of publicity and the cover of every car magazine.
This list is subject to periodic updates, of course, but this is how I see it now. I predict both the Chevy Volt and the Nissan Leaf will sell in sufficient numbers to make them, if not runaway hits, at least modest successes. They have the greatest consumer awareness, the most utility, the best pricing and are supported by solid dealer and promotional bases. The Fisker Karma and the Tesla Model S are also likely to do well, though both will need to meet high quality and performance standards to stay afloat.
I’m bullish about the Ford Focus electric (which will benefit from the company’s strong reputation and marketing clout) and the BMW Megacity Vehicle (for the same reasons). Audi could do well with limited numbers of high-end performance-oriented electric and plug-in hybrid cars, as could Porsche. I especially like Daimler’s A-Class battery car, though it may not appear in the U.S. or become a regular commercial entry. Chrysler/Fiat’s 500 electric may also be a very small, image-burnishing program.
A number of other cars face a tougher time in the market. The Smart car (pictured right) has had a troubled run in the American marketplace, and its “electric drive” version hit the showrooms with a high lease price. A new version is coming, and with Mercedes alone in control it might be a huge improvement. Like Smart, Think (which just survived a near-death experience and now has a Russian owner) has an inherent two-seater limitation, plus a relatively high price. The new owner needs to lower the price, and maybe offer the battery pack in a separate lease offer.Coda has many hurdles, from a high price to plain-Jane styling. Most of its original executives (including the high-flying CEO, Kevin Czinger) have left, and it’s on indefinite hiatus. Wheego’s ace in the hole is Mike McQuary’s can-do attitude and very low overhead, so it could make it with sales of a few thousand cars a year.
China’s BYD, which intends to import both a battery electric and a plug-in hybrid, has a good chance of making it in the U.S. if it keeps prices low, and brings quality, design and safety up to Western standards (big if). Aptera, well, that one requires a leap of faith. The company, which just returned deposits to customers, is highly dependent on a federal Department of Energy loan that is a bit of a longshot. But Aptera insists it’s still a viable enterprise. But isn’t that Aptera’s dashboard on the DOE home page?
My list is a snapshot in time, capturing a moment in a fast-moving terrain.
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The Nissan Leaf price will be going down in 2013. Nissan has opened a manufacturing plant in the US which will reduce costs considerably.
We'll need another breakthrough (interesting note one of the key inventors behind the Lithium-Ion tech is still working on it today) in storage technology, but I'm hopeful at least all this interest means some people are actually working on it.
"China’s BYD...has a good chance of making it in the U.S. if it keeps prices low, and brings quality, design and safety up to Western standards (big if)"
Western standards? How about Japanese standards? Most overall quality surveys put European makes behind US makes, which in turn are a bit behind Japanese brands.
Every manufacturer, though, employs a form of the Toyota Production System. I guess that's the "Western" standard you speak of.
I'm trying to understand why this article doesn't include anything about the Renault Fluence ZE. Renault is currently building 100,000 units of the Fluence ZE for Better Place. Matter of fact, why is this article completely devoid of any mention of Better Place?
... soon marketed in Western Europe (and looking for investors, by the way -- write to me laurent@).
Well, all you proved is that Chrysler is stupid. It had everything to bring a high-tech, low cost, electric car to the market, but Chrysler choose NOT TO. What total fools those people at Chrysler, must be.
I'm with you, anonymous. Chrysler has had numerous opportunities to deliver a hybrid or an electric car, but has chosen not to--through the federal Partnership for a new Generation of Vehicles process, it developed a 80-mpg hybrid that could have come out in 2000--same year as the Prius.
The whole electric car arena is still in its infancy. The Model S is coming, but the 300 mile battery is an expensive upgrade (base battery is 150 miles). I might not be able to afford one right now, but if I was I would. I would also invest in a solar charging station for my home. As for the Volt: my daily commute is about 8 miles round trip. I could use the car every day for a year and not put a drop of gas in it if I charge it each week.
just don't get stuck in traffic.
See, this remark shows a lack of education. Electric cars don't use power when sitting in traffic. Petro vehicles on the other hand will consume power. When an electric car is sitting in traffic the battery is not being drained.
Unless you have the A/C on, oh yeah the all electric power steering is taking power....don't forget your radio! Electric cars use power while sitting still just by being on.
So if you are sitting in traffic you do not want to have AC, heat or a radio operating
Oh yeah, *that's* gonna work in Dallas in the summertime :P
Look at www.eon-motors.com, soon to appear on European roads, and hopefully in the US too. A range enough for an average 3 days of commuting (that is 60 real kms), and they have pattented a new cooling seat which uses 50 times less energy than an AC system for a better feeling for the driver.
If you don't read French and want to know more, you can write to me : laurent (at)
Hi Forrest,
I agree with the thrust of your remarks, but if your round trip is only 8 miles a day then you would be hauling around an idle internal combution engine with a full tank of gas unnecessarily. ;-)
If you can't afford a Model S, then a Leaf would be a more economical alternative to the Volt that would still satisfy your daily commute requirements.
Larry
I'm a guy with a modicum of knowledge who DOES think the Tesla Model S will do well. I agree it won't seat seven comfortably, but I do think it will have 300 miles of range--with a huge 90-95-kilowatt-hour pack that its buyers will pay for. Tesla has consistently delivered the range it said it would.
I do hope you are right, and they can deliver even the majority of what they claim. Maybe I'm a pessimist, but the S claims are just too far from conservative (at any moderate production volume) and close examination of the Roadster unveils some serious glossing over of significant issues.
I'd be willing to make a bet like the one mentioned earlier, and happily pay out if proven wrong. Guess we all will know beginning next year.
Instead of driving a car, use some of that fat stored in your massive butts to ride a bicycle. I am pretty sure you have plenty of stored energy to go thousands of miles.
I am so happy for you.
But some of us have families or medical conditions where that is not possible.
I used to ride a bike 150 plus miles a week, probably much more than you. Then I got married, had a family, had surgury. For any and all, a car is needed.
When real life catches up with you, let me know, for now I'll drive my diesel and get better milage than the hybrids out there.
Forget the cars : THEY are irrelevant !
Watch the storage batteries. . Someday, a half-way decent one will be found -- Actually, it is right over there, under some bushes (pardon, shrubs) laughing at us all. . Maybe we should look at parsnips again ?
Get an editor. This article has too many grammatical errors.
I re-read my article and didn't see any typos, so maybe you're on a higher plane.
I re-read my article and didn't see any typos, so maybe you're on a higher plane.
You think the Volt is the answer, what are you crazy, thats the biggest joke to come out of GM. You are so negitive about the electric car whats your brilliant idea to get off of foreign oil. My personal opinion is still the standard hybrid, no plugging in to charge. I have a Prius and get 52 MPG, beat that one. Also how about commenting on Chrysler who has not produced one fuel efficient car since the bailout.
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