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The top 10 electric cars most likely to succeed
It's still early as electric and plug-in hybrid cars roll out, but it's time to call likely winners and also-rans.
Fri, Aug 19 2011 at 3:35 PM
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IN FOCUS: Ford's new electric car has a good tailwind. (Photo: Ford)
The crystal ball is still cloudy on electric and plug-in hybrid cars. They’re still being made in limited numbers, and delivered to very specific test markets. And half the really exciting ones aren’t even here yet. Still, it’s time to make some predictions about what will succeed and what will fail in the marketplace. Here are my top 10 leading candidates, in descending order:
1. Chevy Volt (at right): GM’s $41,000 plug-in hybrid, soon to have a sister car in the more upscale Cadillac ELR (first seen on the auto show circuit as the Converj in 2009). GM has sold 3,200 so far, but the number doesn’t have much to do with demand — production’s been shut down as the company gears up for a capacity of 60,000 a year by 2012.2. Toyota Prius plug-in hybrid: With an all-electric range of nine to 13 miles, after which it’s a regular Prius, this car should find a lot of fans.
3. Nissan Leaf: Some 4,000 have been sold so far in the U.S., and East Coast customers are still waiting patiently. The price is going up for 2012 — to $38,000 for the SL trim that most customers will want.
4. Tesla Model S: Due next year, this $49,990 electric sedan is half the price of the exotic Roadster, but it has far more utility. On the same platform, Tesla will also offer a Model X crossover that should sell really well.
5. Ford C-Max Energi plug-in hybrid: There is now downside to plug-in hybrids, except maybe their price. This one is headed for the market in 2012, and with 500 miles of range it should be a really practical, fun-to-own car.
6. Ford Focus electric/Toyota RAV4 electric (tie): Take your pick. The 2012 Focus (pictured at top) is an electric version of the redesigned Focus small car, best used as a city car with an 80-mile range. It should offer good performance — celebrities raced them on Jay Leno’s show! The RAV4 is being built with Tesla, and it continues the electric career of the popular crossover (which was briefly on the market around the turn of the millennium as a competitor for the GM EV1).
7. Fisker Karma: After many delays, the Karma (at right) is finally on the market, or at least the first set of keys has been handed to Leonardo DiCaprio, with Colin Powell and Al Gore in the wings. The Karma is a $100,000 plug-in hybrid with Italian supercar good looks (though the BMW veteran designer is actually a Dane). This car has serious glamor going for it, but it has to perform up to the hype.8. Honda Fit/Toyota iQ city electrics (tie): I love subcompacts, and they make great bases for inexpensive electric cars. These two (both headed for production in 2012) should be evenly matched, and go head to head. I’m really hoping for low prices on these two cars — under $30,000 would be nice, even if it means a smaller battery pack and less than 100 miles of range.
9. BMW i3 Megacity Vehicle: BMW was an early player in the space with its lively Mini-based electric vehicles, and its successor, a plug-in version of the 1-Series. The 2013 BMW i3 is the company’s first all-electric platform, and it’s headed for the road in the world’s super-crowded cities (hence the name). The concept makes sense, since that’s where the world’s population is headed, but only if the price is kept low enough so the middle class (instead of just the super-rich) can afford it.
10. Porsche 918 Spyder plug-in hybrid: Speaking of the super-rich, this car will cost $845,000. Porsche will build just 918 of them when it debuts on Sept. 18, 2013. (They’re into numerology at Porsche.) But even if they sell only a few of them, at that price the company will make money — and reap acres of publicity and the cover of every car magazine.
This list is subject to periodic updates, of course, but this is how I see it now. I predict both the Chevy Volt and the Nissan Leaf will sell in sufficient numbers to make them, if not runaway hits, at least modest successes. They have the greatest consumer awareness, the most utility, the best pricing and are supported by solid dealer and promotional bases. The Fisker Karma and the Tesla Model S are also likely to do well, though both will need to meet high quality and performance standards to stay afloat.
I’m bullish about the Ford Focus electric (which will benefit from the company’s strong reputation and marketing clout) and the BMW Megacity Vehicle (for the same reasons). Audi could do well with limited numbers of high-end performance-oriented electric and plug-in hybrid cars, as could Porsche. I especially like Daimler’s A-Class battery car, though it may not appear in the U.S. or become a regular commercial entry. Chrysler/Fiat’s 500 electric may also be a very small, image-burnishing program.
A number of other cars face a tougher time in the market. The Smart car (pictured right) has had a troubled run in the American marketplace, and its “electric drive” version hit the showrooms with a high lease price. A new version is coming, and with Mercedes alone in control it might be a huge improvement. Like Smart, Think (which just survived a near-death experience and now has a Russian owner) has an inherent two-seater limitation, plus a relatively high price. The new owner needs to lower the price, and maybe offer the battery pack in a separate lease offer.Coda has many hurdles, from a high price to plain-Jane styling. Most of its original executives (including the high-flying CEO, Kevin Czinger) have left, and it’s on indefinite hiatus. Wheego’s ace in the hole is Mike McQuary’s can-do attitude and very low overhead, so it could make it with sales of a few thousand cars a year.
China’s BYD, which intends to import both a battery electric and a plug-in hybrid, has a good chance of making it in the U.S. if it keeps prices low, and brings quality, design and safety up to Western standards (big if). Aptera, well, that one requires a leap of faith. The company, which just returned deposits to customers, is highly dependent on a federal Department of Energy loan that is a bit of a longshot. But Aptera insists it’s still a viable enterprise. But isn’t that Aptera’s dashboard on the DOE home page?
My list is a snapshot in time, capturing a moment in a fast-moving terrain.
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The article is about the "most likely to succeed," not about my personal favorites. But I do like the Volt--precisely for the reason I like other plug-in hybrids. It is electricity without the range anxiety. I do hope they make a cheaper version, such as a production version of the MPV5 crossover (based on the Volt) and shown in China.
I think hybrids like the Prius are the way to go for now. Now if they will just convert them to burn natural gas instead of gasoline, that would be great.
chrysler has had that option avialable for their cars for years.
Facts are contradictory in your statements. If you drive non-stop for 320 miles with average 47.8MPG, you would comsume little less than 3.7 gallon (320/47.8). That's more than the 0.6gallons. Something doesn't add up.
I do not believe 2100 miles on .6 of a gallon of gas. That is impossible. And you can pay 42000 for your volt, I paid 24k for my prius.
If you drive less than 40 miles per day you will never use one drop of gas in the Volt. So in theory you could drive over 100,000 miles without one drop of gas. Plugins are the way to go. The average american drives less than 40 miles a day!! Cant wait to own one.
I had a 1992 Honda CRZ that got 48 to 50 on the highway. All gas and didnt cost me an arm and a leg...conider your prius beaten...
Ford took care of the battery in cold weather AND hot weather. Also it's 100 miles to the charge ( the author was wrong)
The more EV's on the road will lower the net pollution to the environment substantially. Even though power plants will work harder and produce more emissions, power plants are much much much more efficient than a car's internal combustion engine. So for each gas car that comes off the road you get a unit reduction in pollution that is much larger than the respective unit increase from the powerplant.
Good day
Anyone in the west can't use a car that has such serious limitations. Can't pull a horse trailer, or haul hay. Can't get out of it's own way. Can't go nearly far enough without stoppng to charge. No nice engine sound. Batteries to get rid of. No self respecting girl is going to tell you it is a nice ride. Not for me or anyone with any serious use for a car or truck.
most people in the west don't haul horse trailers. Just like most people in Middlesburg, VA don't haul horse trailers... Only in our imaginations... most people are schlubs with jobs and kids.
They are just starting to set up the plant on the Fisker Nina, a plug-in hybrid built at an old Saturn plant in Delaware.
plug in sounds good until, everyone finds out there are going to be power plants shut down. solar and wind sounds cool until you look at the solar and wind maps.
I sure don't see any problem with wind power here in Central Illinois. There's wind generator's sprouting all over. You don't need to have one on your own house in order to drive an EV. The less coal and oil we burn, the better off we'll be.
Gee, I'll miss pumping gasoline every week though. :-)
Let these OPEC countries find some other way to make money off us.
Sunny Guy
Poor people aren't going to buy new cars period. And middle class? The repubs hunt the middle class for sport, and are on course to wipe most middle-classers out within a couple years anyway. That leaves rich people, who can buy as many of these toys as they please...
The Think City car is more available than any Nissan or Chevy or Ford, and at a better price. I have one, and I love it! See www.think-usa.com
This article should have been named "The Top 10 Plug-In Vehicles most likely to succeed". If you're going to say "Electric Cars", then talk about electric cars and not hybrids.
recycling batteries is concern for the automakers as it is in leaf.
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