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MNN.COM > MNN BLOGGERS > Jim Motavalli's Blog

Jim Motavalli

Congress likes fuel-cell cars; Toyota says they could even be cheap

Could fuel-cell cars be on the market by 2015? There are still daunting cost issues, but Congress is restoring research dollars, and -- despite vocal critics -- automakers are still bullish.
Tue, Jul 28 2009 at 8:40 AM EST

STEP ASIDE, SKEPTICS: The author investigates fuel cells in chilly (and financially strapped) Iceland.
Defying the will of President Obama and Energy Secretary Steven Chu, the hydrogen fuel-cell community is demonstrating its clout by convincing Congress to restore funding — and at the same time promising affordable vehicles in the near future. Could companies be producing a million a year by 2030?
 
The House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly to approve $153 million for hydrogen and fuel cells as part of the DOE’s Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Program. Chu’s 2010 budget had called for just $68 million, down from $168 million in 2009.
 
At the same time, a full Senate vote on $190 million in hydrogen funding could come at any time (though it may be delayed until after the August recess). If the Senate approves that level of spending, reconciliation of the two amounts will probably leave hydrogen about where it was last year.
 
There isn’t really an anti-hydrogen lobby, but if there was, it would be headed by former-Energy-Department-official-turned-blogger Joseph Romm, author of The Hype About Hydrogen, who says, “There are only three sure things in life — death, taxes, and you’re never going to buy a hydrogen fuel-cell car. Congress should stop wasting your money pursuing Bush’s phony dream.”
 
Toyota isn’t so sure about that. At a recent University of Michigan conference, Justin Ward, advanced powertrain program manager of the Toyota Technical Center, told Ward’s Auto (no relation),  “Everyone thinks fuel-cell cars are zillion-dollar vehicles. We have some confidence the vehicle released around 2015 is going to have costs that are going to be shocking for most of the people in the industry. They are going to be very surprised we were able to achieve such an impressive cost reduction.”
 
Byron McCormick, for many years GM's fuel-cell chief until his recent retirement, agrees that costs can come down dramatically. He said in an email message to MNN, "The cost part can be amazingly low if the early-generation capital costs can be reduced throughout the entire supply chain and there is enough volume to dilute those costs across many vehicles. If with a focused/agressive effort Toyota pulls into their 2015 offering all we know is possible, then I do believe the costs would be surprisingly lower than the skeptics or public at large would expect."
 
Praveen Kedar also agrees. He's General Motors group vice president for advanced vehicle development, and he thinks Nissan is also a “very aggressive” player in hydrogen, as is Hyundai/Kia (for the Korean home market). The company could have 1,000 fuel cell cars on the market by 2012, 30,000 by 2018, and a huge million a year by 2030. Kedar also said Toyota is counting on 90 percent cost reductions in fuel cell stacks to get prices significantly down.
 
Fuel cells lost a powerful ally with the recent retirement of General Motors R&D Vice President Larry Burns, because he’d carried the ball for “the reinvention of the automobile” with hydrogen (and promising to develop affordable ready-for-market technology by 2010).
 
In an interview, Burns said GM’s hydrogen work would continue unabated under successor Alan Taub (who had run GM’s far-flung science labs). “We’re staying on track, but GM, which has invested $1.5 billion since the 1990s, can’t pay for [its fuel-cell work] all by itself.” He called for Congress to reverse Chu’s decision, and must regard the current Congressional action as a welcome retirement present. “It’s not a done deal yet,” he cautioned.  And, indeed, it is not.

 

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Comments(17)

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Posted By Michael - Fri, Jan 22 2010 at 8:09 PM EST

Fuel Cells are the best way to go

At most, fuel cell cars are leased for $600/month for 3 years from Honda if you live in the right part of the country. At best, don't be surprised if some are sold soon in the $30k or less range. These numbers are better than the numbers
you get for battery electric cars and these fuel cell cars can go hundreds, not tens of miles, on compressed hydrogen gas. They refuel in minutes, not hours.
Fuel cell cars can handle really cold temperatures of 35 below fahrenheit.

All.... More

  • reply
Posted By jimwhenry - Thu, Jul 30 2009 at 12:58 AM EST

cash for clunkers

Yes, Your vehicle must be less than 25 years old on the trade-in date

Henry
Blogger
www.cashforclunkersfacts.info
http://www.cashforclunkersfacts.info

  • reply
Posted By Chris H. - Wed, Jul 29 2009 at 12:43 PM EST

Don't be Fueled Again

I'm sorry to break the news to the commenters here, but hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are a red herring promoted by the fossil fuel lobby. Even if the cost of producing a H2FCV can be lowered to a reasonable level, and the durability of FCs can be improved, there's still the issue of the cost of the hydrogen (more expensive than gasoline), and the energy efficiency of hydrogen as an energy carrier.

Where does hydrogen come from? Most commercially available H2 comes from natural gas (a.... More

  • reply
Posted By Ingrid - Thu, Jul 30 2009 at 9:47 AM EST

Hydrogen is an enabler for MORE RENEWABLES

COST: You know, even with today's technology, hydrogen can be dispensed at volume at a fueling pump for about the same price as gasoline. And if you include sources like making hydrogen from water using wind electricity, it's not too much more and the costs are coming down even further. That's not something you can say for either gasoline or natural gas costs:

.... More

  • reply
Posted By LizR - Wed, Jul 29 2009 at 6:31 PM EST

Electric Vehicles are best

We need all kinds of EVs -- fuel cells, batteries and plug-in hybrids -- to get away from fossil fuels. The big oil companies don't see much future in H2 or electricity. The big players in electricity are the utility companies, trading one monopoly for another. The big players in H2 are industrial gas companies, businesses that have agricultural waste and small start-ups.

"If you choose to do the research, and crunch the numbers, you will find that an electric vehicle will travel about.... More

  • reply
Posted By Chris H. - Thu, Jul 30 2009 at 2:58 AM EST

Shell out

If you want to know who's behind the push towards H2 powered vehicles, click the link.

http://www.shell.com/home/content/aboutshell/our_business/oil_products/f...

  • reply
Posted By Chris H. - Thu, Jul 30 2009 at 2:47 AM EST

Not So Fast

Electric vehicles and H2FCVs do not have the same efficiency. H2FCVs have an efficiency of about 17%-22%. In contrast EVs are 80%-90% efficient.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_cell_vehicle#Efficiency

.... More

  • reply
Posted By Patrick from NHA - Thu, Jul 30 2009 at 8:12 AM EST

Watch out: 'Not so fast tried' to pull a "fast one"

Whoa! Wikipedia sources for vehicle efficiency? I don't think so. Those numbers are so off, I'm not sure where to start.

Here are the real efficiency numbers straight from an automaker who's developing all kinds of alternative vehicles: Toyota. This was presented at a professional conference of automobile engineers, SAE World Congress. And they take into account the WHOLE process so you're comparing apples to apples:

"Justin Ward said that Toyota sees market opportunity.... More

  • reply
Posted By Chris H. - Thu, Jul 30 2009 at 3:51 PM EST

Fuel me once, shame on....you, fuel me twice, shame on... You ca

Well, Patrick (Serfass?), in the interests of full disclosure, perhaps you could tell us just what the "NHA" is, and what it's affiliation with Shell Hydrogen is (including any financial support). You may also want to mention your relationships with Chevron, GM, Toyota, Honda, and the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity. Btw, was it the link to the Shell Hydrogen site that triggered your response?

To get back to the numbers: I stand by the efficiency numbers I reported above..... More

  • reply
Posted By J.M. - Fri, Nov 13 2009 at 2:47 PM EST

How about putting in ALL of the numbers...

In both FCVs and BEVs, the biggest inefficiency comes in converting the chemical energy to electrical. A fuel cell system vehicle has an efficiency over 50%, a natural gas or coal power plant is under 50%. Before talking about how efficient a BEV is, maybe you should look at the well-to-wheel numbers. Otherwise, you just come off as another person hiding the truth to prove a point. The energy to compress hydrogen is no more than the losses in the transmission system. The efficiency of.... More

  • reply
Posted By J.M. - Fri, Nov 13 2009 at 2:46 PM EST

How about putting in ALL of the numbers...

In both FCVs and BEVs, the biggest inefficiency comes in converting the chemical energy to electrical. A fuel cell system vehicle has an efficiency over 50%, a natural gas or coal power plant is under 50%. Before talking about how efficient a BEV is, maybe you should look at the well-to-wheel numbers. Otherwise, you just come off as another person hiding the truth to prove a point. The energy to compress hydrogen is no more than the losses in the transmission system. The efficiency of.... More

  • reply
Posted By Betty Ford - Tue, Jul 28 2009 at 7:08 PM EST

follow where the leaders are heading

Sounds like most of the leading auto companies believe in hydrogen fuel cells, acknowledging that any quest to quit the oil dependency will be difficult (whatever option(s) we use to get there). If aggressive, successful and forward thinking companies are moving in that direction I will place my bets on them.

Or I could believe the former govt hydrogen lead under Clinton who know tries blaming Bush. He is now know as a blogger, that's almost as credible as being on the Simpsons.

  • reply
Posted By Sandy - Tue, Jul 28 2009 at 4:43 PM EST

Fuel cell electric vehicle cost..

...will be quite affordable in mass production. In an extensive techno/economic analysis, Kromer & Heywood at MIT concluded that fuel cell electric vehicles with 350 miles range would cost only $3,600 more than gasoline cars in mass production. By contrast, plug-in hybrids with 30 miles all-electric range are projected to cost $4,300 more in mass production, and all-electric battery vehicles with only 200 miles range are estimated to cost $10,200 more. [ref: Kromer & Heywood,.... More

  • reply
Posted By Doc Watts - Tue, Jul 28 2009 at 4:42 PM EST

A fumble now could cost us a lot.

The US automakers lost out on hybrids, by not following through on battery technologies from the '90s. Momof2 is right, the US automakers need to follow through on fuel cells now, or risk another set of losses in the marketplace when they are slow to deliver on the best technology available in its own time. First to market means a lot. Last to market means a lot lost.

  • reply
Posted By Anonymous - Tue, Jul 28 2009 at 4:41 PM EST

Window of Opportunity

Jim, I appreciate your update on the progress of the hydrogen fuel cell car development. This is, indeed, a pivotal time in our automotive history when it is apparent that present systems will not work and that we need to use this window of opportunity to work with leaders in Congress and automotive companies like Toyota while supporting transitional initiatives by GM, Ford and Chrysler to capitalize on the many advantages of hydrogen fuel cell technology that can improve our environment,.... More

  • reply
Posted By Momof2 - Tue, Jul 28 2009 at 4:21 PM EST

If Toyota is optimistic....

...then there must be money to be made here....I'd like to see the big 3 follow this...let's try some innovation.

  • reply
Posted By Patrick from NHA - Tue, Jul 28 2009 at 4:07 PM EST

Great piece!

Excellent piece Jim. You've wrapped up the current situation very realistically. What's critically important is that we continue to build on all the great successes so far by continuing to fund further innovation, and we do so in TANDEM with other complementary alternative vehicle technologies.

  • reply

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New York Times contributor blogs about green transportation.

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